Iran goes all pre-emptive. Sanctions against their oil exports to the EU were set to take effect in July, but Iran has becided to cut it off now, namely to Britain and France.
Meanwhile, little bombs here, little bombs there?
Iran
All posts tagged Iran
I don’t buy into the claim that the war in Afghanistan was illegal, immoral or that it wasn’t worth going in there and kicking some Taliban butt.
That said, we’re not really getting anywhere, are we? Thus, the following is probably the best course of action.
THE US and Afghan governments have begun secret* three-way talks with the Taliban, Afghan President Hamid Karzai told The Wall Street Journal, disclosing an important breakthrough in efforts to end the 10-year war.
Mr Karzai, whose government had protested being left out of recent talks between Washington and the insurgents, added he believes most Taliban are “definitively” interested in a peace settlement.
Now an assertation by Karzai doesn’t exactly carry much weight IMO, but let’s hope he’s right on this occaision. It looks like this report out of the Pentagon backs what Karzai is saying.
The Pentagon on Wednesday offered new details of its plan for shifting from a combat mission in Afghanistan to one focused on training and advising Afghan forces as they gradually shoulder more of the combat burden.
The Army identified five U.S.-based brigades, as well as an Army Reserve organization, that will be reconfigured and sent to Afghanistan between April and August to “generate, employ and sustain” Afghan forces.
The Army called this a “new mission” after more than 10 years of fighting in Afghanistan.
And there’s this interesting and hopefully positive development, as well.
Karzai’s comments came as he prepared to meet the leaders of neighbouring Pakistan and Iran in Islamabad on Thursday for a summit set to focus on security issues, including the Taliban insurgency and support for it from within Pakistan. He did not give any further details about the contacts.
Now I’m no military strategist hotshot, but I really don’t think the West has to worry too much about Taliban strikes on our home soil or Iran cutting off its oil supplies if the US/NATO has a less active role in the region. Iran needs the money and/or gold more than ever thanks to sanctions; gold which they’re reportedly using to by grain (from Australia no less) and which others are reportedly using to buy Iranian oil.
*BTW, the talks aren’t really “secret” are they when word of them is splashed across the WSJ and the Australian.
In the Australian today:
NO sooner did President Barack Obama welcome home American troops from Iraq and laud that country’s stability and democracy than an unprecedented wave of violence across Baghdad and elsewhere revealed the severity of Iraq’s political crisis.
Unfortunate, yet hardly surprising, even to the most casual of observers.
And whilst I can understand (yet not agree with) the Left’s position not to send troops into Iraq in the first place – an argument, largely moot, for another day – what I don’t understand is their fervish desire to pull the troops out.
It always smacked of idealism, ideology, rather than hard-nosed practicality.
After all, what was so bad with having a US troop presence there to help maintain Iraq’s fragile democratic stability?
One could argue that I am biased because a) I am centre-right politically and b) because I live in South Korea, a nation that has had a US troop presence – some 37,000 28,000 or so currently – since the armistice between North and South Korea and have seen what a permanent US troop presence looks like.
I am happy to accept those labels and can gladly tell you that such a presence ain’t that bad.
By and large, US bases in Korea – and Japan for that matter – haven’t been a problem.
Sure, issues pop up from time to time, but if one looks at the big picture, then a strong US presence here can only be seen as a good thing, a safe option, a pretty darn good insurance policy against North Korea trying anything major on.
Almost 60 years we’ve had US troops over here without any major problems. In fact, many major problems (a full-scale Nork attack comes to mind) have arguably been averted thanks to this presence.
So, why the rush to leave Iraq essentially free of any US military before even a decade is up and before, as is clear now, the job is done?
OK, so perhaps it’s a bit like comparing apples and oranges. US troops in Korea, aside from those stationed at the DMZ, aren’t on active duty as they were in Iraq.
However, it’s not a completely dissimilar situation. Perhaps a good analogy would be to compare mandarins and oranges.
US troops not only provided safety and stability in the fledgling democracy that is Iraq – a country still steeped with sectarian and tribal rivalries – but surely they also provided a deterrence to anybody or any groups who want to destabilise the nation.
What takes years to build can take mere seconds to destroy, and I fear a lot of hard work is being undone on the whim of a flawed, feel-good, ideology.
So why?
The only practical reason that I can see for Obama pulling his troops out of Iraq is that with an Iranian confrontation looming which includes action needed in Syria, Iraq frankly isn’t important enough any more or at best, an impractical option for a potentially over-stretched military.
Of course, Obama – a man of the progressive Left – can’t actually come out and say that but it is reasonably well-known to those who don’t just get their news from the MSM that Obama is actually more of a war-time president than Bush was, having committed more troops to both Iraq and Afghanistan, and for a longer period of time.
So whilst the MSM might play along with the “bringing the troops home” narrative, the evidence indicates this simply isn’t the case.
Some 20,000 marines, seamen and air crews from half a dozen countries, a US nuclear aircraft carrier strike group and three US Marine gunship carriers are practicing an attack on a fictitious mechanized enemy division which has invaded its neighbor. It is the largest amphibian exercise seen in the West for a decade, staged to simulate a potential Iranian invasion of an allied Persian Gulf country and a marine landing on the Iranian coast. Based largely on US personnel and hardware, French, British, Italian, Dutch, Australian* and New Zealand military elements are integrated in the drill.
Bold Alligator went into its operational phase Monday, Feb. 6, the same day as a large-scale exercise began in southern Iran opposite the Strait of Hormuz. This simultaneity attests to the preparations for a US-Iranian showdown involving Israel behind the words on Feb. 5 of US President Barack Obama (“I don’t think Israel has decided whether to attack Iran”) and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Feb. 3 (“The war itself will be ten times as detrimental to the US.”).
(*BTW, I don’t recall Aussie PM Gillard highlighting that one.)
And this:
As the US and Israel carried on bickering over the right time to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, their war preparations continued apace. debkafile’s military sources report that flight after flight of US warplanes and transports were to be seen this week cutting eastward through the skies of Sinai on their way to Gulf destinations, presumably Saudi Arabia, at a frequency not seen in the Middle East for many years.
Add into this mix reports that China will reportedly help Saudi Arabia build a nuclear bomb, and that both China and India have started paying Iran for its oil in gold thus helping thwart current US/UN sanctions (more of which were recently thwarted by Russia and China), then we see a stage set for a showdown and we see the reality that rhetoric aside, Obama won’t be bringing many troops home at all.
To someone who doesn’t know any better, it’s as if Russia, India, and China – all wannabe first chickens to the trough – are ganging up on America.**
PS Who wouldn’t love to be a fly on the wall listening in to what the US is really saying about China? Their ever-expanding use of soft power is in many ways, stuffing it all up for America. China must surely be becoming an ever-increasing pain in the neck.
This leaves Australia in an interesting position. Our main export partner is China. Our main ally is the US. We send China our goodies to help them get rich and rival America. We practice shooting our guns with America to help keep America on top.
And yet China and America are also so deep in each other’s pockets. America buys China’s goods. China buys America’s debt.
Fun times.
** I highly recommend reading The Lucifer Principle by Howard Bloom. Part of the book talks about the pecking order of nations.
You go, big guy.
“Iran is in a very good position to deliver retaliatory strikes on America around the world. Even if it attacks, we have a list of counter actions. … An attack on Iran would be suicidal for them.”
You just know Obama is shaking in his Air Jordans.
Possibly.
US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has been outspoken about a possible Israeli offensive against Iran taking place as of April and one American TV channel theorized simplistically Friday, Feb. 3, about Israel’s tactics. At the same time, no US source is leveling on the far more extensive American, Saudi, British, French and Gulf states’ preparations going forward for an offensive against the Islamic Republic.
Tehran too is gearing up for conflict: The Iranian Guards Ground Forces chief Brig. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour Saturday, Feb. 4 announced the start of a three-week exercise in southern Iran and the Strait of Hormuz under conditions of war. debkafile: The “exercise” is in fact an Iranian military buildup ahead of a possible American or Israel attack.
debkafile’s military sources report a steady flow of many thousands of US troops for some weeks to two strategic islands within reach of Iran, Oman’s Masirah just south of the Strait of Hormuz and Socotra, between Yemen and the Horn of Africa.
It appears the UN isn’t all that interested.
Watching CNN this morning, it seems Obama isn’t interested in a military strike at the moment, but the former US ambassador to Iran did indicate there are various other efforts still available, including further sanctions on Iran’s central bank.
And via JM Heinrichs, some lessons on Iran by David P. Goldman.
Will sanctions persuade Iran to stop building nuclear weapons? No such question can be answered with finality, but it is more likely that the Obama administration’s graduated sanctions will accelerate Tehran’s efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. The Obama administration, according to news accounts, is aghast that Israel might take preemptive action rather than give sanctions time to work. Sanctions, though, are more likely to prompt Iran to stake everything on the nuclear card. The last time the West dealt with a similar case, the prospect of economic collapse and the fear of regime change motivated the outbreak of World War II.
Iran is planning to double its defense budget even though its currency is collapsing. These are related events: in the medium term, the free-fall of Iran’s rial constitutes a transfer of wealth to the government from what remains of Iran’s private sector. As the Washington Post reported yesterday, “The government, which receives oil revenue mostly in dollars and euros, is profiting from the rial’s decline, analysts said. ‘Their income is in dollars, so a strong dollar helps them to buy more rials to pay their bills,’ said one prominent economist, who asked not to be identified, for fear of reprisals.” At least for the time being, sanctions strengthen the relative position of the regime, while undermining its long-term staying power — unless, of course, Tehran begins a new set of regional wars under a nuclear umbrella.
Also via JM:
Frankly, I see Obama forcing Israel into a tight spot.
UPDATE
Is Obama so reluctant to get involved military with Iran because, despite the narrative, it’s actually going abyssmally in Afghanistan?
From the keyboard of a Lt. Col. who was on the ground:
What I saw bore no resemblance to rosy official statements by U.S. military leaders about conditions on the ground.
Entering this deployment, I was sincerely hoping to learn that the claims were true: that conditions in Afghanistan were improving, that the local government and military were progressing toward self-sufficiency. I did not need to witness dramatic improvements to be reassured, but merely hoped to see evidence of positive trends, to see companies or battalions produce even minimal but sustainable progress.
Instead, I witnessed the absence of success on virtually every level.
H/T JM
Not the best news for a Sunday…
Tehran media trumpeted the news Sunday, Jan. 8 that Iran’s deep underground uranium enrichment site at Fordo near Qom goes stream soon, thereby crossing another line in its faceoff with the West on its weapons program. The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization Fereydoun Abbasi Davani told the Kayhan daily: … 20 percent, 3.5 percent and four percent enriched uranium can be produced at this site.” debkafile’s military sources report that 60 percent is equally feasible, just one step before weapons grade.
And once it’s online, we can’t attack it. Something had better be done pronto before it’s too late.
We waited too long with North Korea and now look where we are.
Meanwhile, South Korea is wise to reconsider its dependence on Iran’s oil.
UPDATE
Ex-military bloke JM Heinrichs in comments says there would, actually, be a few ways to render even a deep underground facility ineffective.
UPDATE II
The situation is ramping up.
Iran launched a military maneuver near its border with Afghanistan on Saturday, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, days after naval exercises in the Gulf increased tensions with the West and pushed up oil prices.
And this:
Tension in the oil shipping lanes of the Gulf looks set to intensify amid indications that Iran, Israel and the US will hold military exercises designed to test weaponry and tactics.
Still, who knows with this kind of stuff.
Iran guided the CIA‘s “lost” stealth drone to an intact landing inside hostile territory by exploiting a navigational weakness long-known to the US military, according to an Iranian engineer now working on the captured drone’s systems inside Iran.
Via Instapundit who notes, “If true, the GPS spoofing is a huge issue.”
And that question is:
Why didn’t Obama just destroy the drone when he had the chance?
UPDATE
Another drone crash, this time in the Seychelles.
The middle east is a volatile enough region as it is. What an even bigger headache it would be if Iran ever fully realises their nuclear weapon capabilities.
AN IRANIAN nuclear facility has been hit by a huge explosion, the second such blast in a month, prompting speculation that Tehran’s military and atomic sites are under attack.
Satellite imagery seen by The Times confirmed that a blast that rocked the city of Isfahan on Monday struck the uranium enrichment facility there, despite denials by Tehran.
The images clearly showed billowing smoke and destruction, negating Iranian claims yesterday that no such explosion had taken place. Israeli intelligence officials told The Times that there was “no doubt” that the blast struck the nuclear facilities at Isfahan and that it was “no accident”.
Indeed; turning the screws.
And some of the fallout from the new sanctions imposed on Iran?
Britain has evacuated all its diplomatic staff from Iran, Western diplomatic sources told Reuters on Wednesday, a day after protesters stormed and ransacked its embassy and a residential compound.
UPDATE (via JM)
A decent look into what could happen to oil prices – various scenarios – in the event of a war with Iran.
As Syria’s Assad regime countinues to slaughter its own people (including the killing and torture of 256 children), it is fast turning into a standoff between Russia and the US in the region.
The Syrian crisis aassumed a big power dimension this week with the build-up of rival United States and Russia naval air carrier armadas in Syrian waters, debkafile’s military sources report.
The USS George H.W. Bush arrived Wednesday, Nov. 23, in the wake of the three Russian warships anchored earlier opposite Tartus which established a command post in the Syrian port. They will be augmented by Russia’s only air carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov, which is due in mid-week.
By deploying 70 ship-borne fighter-bombers plus three heavy guided missile cruisers and five guided missile destroyers opposite Syria, Washington has laid down military support for any intervention the Arab League in conjunction with Turkey may decide on.
Bashar Assad can see for himself that Washington has hoisted a nuclear aerial umbrella to protect its allies, Israel, Turkey, and Jordan, against the retaliation his armed forces high command pledged Friday for the deaths of six Syrian air force elite pilots in an ambush Thursday.
But why would Russia be so concerned about Syria? Well, as usual, it’s a case of follow the money.
Russia has a strong financial stake in the survival of the Assad regime. But it also opposes Western intervention on principle – particularly in the wake of NATO’s Libya campaign.
We’re talking a financial stake to the tune of $20 billion.
And (from that link), it gets messier.
Much of the funding for the arms deals reportedly is underwritten by Iran, which signed several defense agreements with Syria from 2005. That enables some of the weapons allegedly to be quietly transferred to Iran thus circumventing a United Nations ban of arms exports to the Islamic Republic.
Now isn’t that just fine and dandy.
Russia also claims it prefers stability essentially over the West’s preference for democracy. It says the alternative to these regimes, instead of being democracies, could indeed be much worse.
More on that stability mantra here:
Putin promised Russians stability, a word he repeated often throughout his speech. In countering criticism that he has tightened his control at the expense of democracy, Putin insisted that Russia needs a “stable political system” to guarantee “stable development” for decades to come.
Indeed.
Presumably, Russia didn’t like what happened in Eqypt either.
A second day of voting has begun in Egypt in the first elections since former President Hosni Mubarak was overthrown with indications of a high turnout in Cairo and other big cities.
The first day of polling for a new parliament was mainly peaceful.
Voting was extended by two hours to cope with long queues and few security problems were reported.
And from that link, the BBC’s Cairo correspondent, Kevin Connolly:
Most parties seem to agree though that Egypt is on course for a record turnout. An indication of the pent-up appetite for democracy – allowed free expression at last.
PS No wonder Russia didn’t like Obama’s InstaWar-that-wasn’t-actually-a-war in Libya. It could well cost them $10 billion in lost business deals if the new government there decides it’s not interested in deals Ghaddafi signed before his ousting.
UPDATE (Via JM)
It may well not be as tense between the US and Russia as my earlier links suggest.
Calm down, the aircraft carrier is not off Syria
With little having been disclosed to the public at this point, and no assurance as to what is actually being planned or proposed, speculation is rampant. DEBKA and the Russian agency RT are hyperventilating today over a report that USS George H W Bush (CVN-77) has anchored off the Syrian coast. But Bush actually pulled into Marseilles on the 25th for a long-scheduled port visit (and posted photos from a reception in Marseilles on Saturday at her Facebook page). French local press confirms the carrier’s presence.
The Russians may or may not have dispatched three warships to Tartus to signal that they don’t want a Western intervention in Syria, and that they want to protect their alliance with the Assad regime. The report originated with Syria, and Russia is being coy about the ships. It would be very easy to disprove the Syrian news story, if the ships aren’t there. And they may well be, calling in Tartus from the anti-piracy station off Somalia, as a Russian anti-piracy task force did in September.
Meanwhile, reports that the Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov is in the Med are premature. As of 24 November, the carrier and her escorts were still in the Northern Fleet operations area in the Barents Sea, awaiting a pre-deployment inspection. The transit to the Strait of Gibraltar will take at least 8 days once it starts; the Russian media report that Kuznetsov will be in the Med in December. Her deployment has been scheduled for some time; of course her activities are indicators of Russian national interests, but they aren’t necessarily an indication of reaction to yesterday’s news.
UPDATE II (via JM)
You know, the Iranian “ammo dump” that blew up yesterday, killing their missile program’s big cheese?
An Iranian exile group claimed Saturday that a blast near Tehran hit a missile base run by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, disputing the Iranian government’s account that it occurred at an ammunition depot.
Interesting. We’ll likely never know but, of course. 
Iran’s gas pipelines and military installations have been hit by several mysterious blasts in recent years, and Tehran has accused the West of engaging in a campaign of sabotage and assassination against the regime.
Why would anyone want to sabotage Iran?
*snicker*
In other military news about governments we don’t really like…
China launched two satellites Wednesday as part of a decade-long rapid expansion of earth-monitoring capabilities that also buttress the country’s growing military prowess.
Yaogan-12, the primary cargo of the launch, is the twelfth model in a series of “remote sensing” satellites that many analysts believe are tasked with gathering military intelligence. China, which has never acknowledged a defense-related launch, claims that the satellite will be used for “scientific experiments, land survey, crop yield assessment, and disaster monitoring.”
Not for military purposes?
Yeah, right.
H/T JM
UPDATE (sorry, was about to knock off work, JM, and didn’t open these links)
Ze plot thickens…
Our sources report increasing evidence that the first explosion was caused by a failed effort to mount a possible nuclear warhead on a Shahab-3 intermediate-range missile.
Reports there of foreign engineers been taken to the military hospital (to avoid any embarrassing leaks) instead of a regular hospital.
But then there’s this…
US blogger Richard Silverstein said Saturday that Israel was the mastermind behind the blast the killed at least 17 people at an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps base near Tehran.
In his blog, Tikun Olam, Silverstein quotes an Israeli expert as saying that the Mossad was responsible for the explosion, in collaboration with the Iranian militant opposition group Mojahedin-e-Khalq.
One thing’s for sure. A bit of “ammo” exploding surely wouldn’t do that much damage and be heard and felt miles and miles away.
It’s all very James Bond.
UPDATE II
Iran will have five nukes by April 2012. Only 2-3 months left for military option
Great site, JM. That, and Strategy Page, too (pity I can’t access SP at work though)
Like this:
That’s according to the latest intelligence (so er, we’ll see)
Israel will launch military action to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon as soon as Christmas, intelligence chiefs have warned.
A report by a UN watchdog into Iran’s nuclear ambitions ‘completely discredits’ the Islamic nation’s protestations of innocence, according to Foreign Secretary William Hague.
The International Atomic Energy Agency found that Iran is developing a nuclear test facility, nuclear detonators and computer modelling for a nuclear warhead that would fit on an existing missile.
Sources say the understanding at the top of the British Government is that Israel will attempt to strike against the nuclear sites ‘sooner rather than later’ – with logistical support from the U.S.
A senior Foreign Office figure has revealed that ministers have been told to expect Israeli military action, adding: ‘We’re expecting something as early as Christmas, or very early in the new year.’
Officials believe President Barack Obama would have to support the Israelis or risk losing vital Jewish-American support in the next presidential election.
Oh, so that’s why. Re-election. Never mind that Iran has a leader who wants Israel “wiped of the map” in order to help usher in his fantastic idea of the 12th Immam, that Iran, China and North Korea are trading missile technologies and that possessing nukes could destabilise the US vital oil supllier, Saudi Arabia.
Never mind that, Obama. You just concentrate on getting yourself re-elected.
“I can’t stand [Israeli PM, Netanayu] any more, he’s a liar,” Mr Sarkozy said in French.
“You may be sick of him, but me, I have to deal with him every day,” Mr Obama replied.
Fills you with confidence, doesn’t it?
Like this:
Not so in the Middle East:
Britain’s armed forces are stepping up their contingency planning for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern about Tehran’s nuclear enrichment programme, the Guardian has learned.
The Ministry of Defence believes the US may decide to fast-forward plans for targeted missile strikes at some key Iranian facilities. British officials say that if Washington presses ahead it will seek, and receive, UK military help for any mission, despite some deep reservations within the coalition government.
And reservations from Obama, too, but for different reasons.
[Whitehall] made clear that Barack Obama, has no wish to embark on a new and provocative military venture before next November’s presidential election.
But they warned the calculations could change because of mounting anxiety over intelligence gathered by western agencies, and the more belligerent posture that Iran appears to have been taking.
Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu is trying to garner support for a pre-emptive strike, and have been doing some missile test-fires recently.
And not content with the prospect of buying Europe, China is possibly still providing military support to Iran that they shouldn’t be.
Big H/T Matt Drudge
Like this:
Let’s hope this doesn’t get too ugly.
TEHRAN (Reuters) – Iran raised the prospect on Tuesday of sending military ships close to the United States’ Atlantic coast, in what would be a major escalation of tensions between the long-standing adversaries.
“Like the arrogant powers that are present near our marine borders, we will also have a powerful presence close to American marine borders,” the head of the Navy, Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said, according to the official IRNA news agency.
Speaking at a ceremony marking the 31st anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, Sayyari gave no details of when such a deployment could happen or the number or type of vessels to be used.
Meanwhile, the West continues to keep a close eye on them.
UNITED NATIONS — France’s UN envoy warned that Iran faces the risk of a military strike if it pursues its nuclear drive because certain countries would not accept it having an atomic weapon.
In surprisingly frank comments at a New York panel discussion, Ambassador Gerard Araud on Tuesday followed up on President Nicolas Sarkozy’s statement that there could be a “preventive strike” against the Islamic republic.
Asked what would happen if Iran reaches the threshold of a nuclear weapon, Araud said: “Personally I am convinced that some countries won’t accept this prospect.”
The envoy said the danger of conflict was why France, Britain, Germany, the United States, Russia and China were trying to negotiate with Tehran.
“If we don’t succeed today to reach a negotiation with the Iranians, there is a strong risk of military action,” according to Araud, who did not say who would be likely to carry out such action.
Well, one thing’s for sure; it won’t be France.
Yes, we’re talking about Iranian president Ahmadinijad. On and on he rambled for 20 minutes about holocaust denial, 9/11 and GFC conspiracy theories, how evil Israel and the US is, and that he’s just a peace loving freedom fighter.
What a joke.
Good on first the US, and then many EU nations walking out on him.
Better still, the US should walk out on the UN all together. They pay most of its fees, and what do they get in return? Garbage like that and the ICLEI, an international body of green warmist zealots, sticking their subsidised fingers into hundreds of local governments.
The UN is a subversion to democracy.
