L-NP 61.5 to ALP’s 38.5

Yowsa.

In the latest Morgan Poll L-NP support is 61.5% (up 3.5% since last week’s face-to-face Morgan Poll) compared to the ALP’s 38.5% (down 3.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to a face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend, May 26/27, 2012. This is a record two-party preferred lead for the L-NP in over 70 years of the Morgan Poll based on how electors said they’d vote.

Today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll shows the L-NP primary vote is 49% (up 3.5%) well ahead of the ALP 27.5% (down 4.5%). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 13% (up 2.5%) and Independents/ Others 10.5% (down 1.5%).

Newspoll gives slightly better results but it’s still dire.

That said, Opposition leader Tony Abbott has cautioned his team not to rest on their laurels.

“Gillard won’t lie down and die. Where there’s life, there’s fight,” Mr Abbott said.

“Our job won’t be over until the next election is won.”

No-confidence motion next week?

“Independent” MP Tony Windsor is egging on Opposition Leader Tony Abbott – currently riding a tsunami of popularity – to move a motion of no-confidence in the Gillard government when parliament resumes May 8th.

Windsor:

“The only way Mr Abbott can find out (if he has support in the parliament) – he would know this, he’s read politics 101 – is if he tests the market place.”

Personally, I’d trust my cat to stay off the coffee table when I’m not home more than I’d trust Windsor, and this smacks of him trying to set Abbott up for an embarassing failure.

Can you take a word that comes out of his mouth seriously? You know, there’s stuff you hear that rings true and then there’s Tony Windsor.

But Mr Windsor said when he actually spoke to his constituents they ultimately agreed with the Labor-driven reforms of aged care, the National Broadband Network, renewable energy and action on the Murray-Darling Basin.

Yep. New England conservatives are apparently gung-ho for the above.

It all makes it sound like Windsor is still smarting after being disendorsed over those drink driving allegations.

UPDATE

So Windsor reckons his constituents are glad for the $36 billion obselete-before-it’s-built NBN, and to have precious farm water ripped out of the Murray-Darling Basin and flushed down the river.

Now I’m no New England local, but they appear to be more concerned with coal-seam gas exploration.

As for Windsor himself, he’s taken rather a confused position on everything to do with coal.

UPDATE II

Other independent Andrew Wilkie won’t support a motion of no-confidence.

Beacuse having Craig Thomson (no matter what happens, his political career is finished* argues Philip Coorey of the SMH) sit as an independent changes everything.

Like Windsor, Wilkie has his finger on the pulse.

“A very large number of people in the electorate are very disappointed with this government but that’s not to say they want a change of government,” he said.

Orly?

* Ya think?

Julia Gillard vs Australian industry

It’ll only take 10 minutes or so to listen to the first part of Andrew Bolt’s MTR podcast today. First up, Bolta and Steve touch on Gillard’s two new NBN satellites, something I covered here yesterday (1700 bucks per Internet connection by my rough calculations based on the figues given in the article). BTW, there’s space available to rent on existing satellites without the need to spend more than half a billion dollars on two more.

Next, it’s onto the Alcoa issue. Alcoa (they smelter aluminium) is reviewing its operations with the possibility of moving them offshore. Presently this is due to the high dollar and other factors, but Alcoa admitted that in the near future, the carbon (dioxide) tax will have an impact also on this energy intensive industry.

Yesterday, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott stated that obvious point.

PM Gillard labelled his comments as “disgusting”.

But the Bolta calls her out. After all, isn’t the whole point of her carbon tax to reduce emmissions and save the planet from global warming? Therefore, in Gillard’s mind, isn’t it a good thing that the high emitters such as Alcoa are – or will be eventually – driven out of business? Isn’t the carbon dioxide tax meant to hurt the “big polluters”?

So why’s she so mad at Abbott?

Also noted is that since the 1960s or something, Alcoa has had a sweetheart deal to buy its electricity at less than a third of the regular price, something factored into its operating model. That deal is set to be scrapped, too. In fact, Alcoa has already done a deal privately with a certain power company.

The rub?

The carbon dioxide tax will, of course, as it is intended to, severly penalise that power company which, if it manages to stay in business, will have to pass on highly elevated prices to its customers.

Do have a listen, at least to the first 10 minutes, as Bolta really nails it.

Our ABC at its best

Most of us speak English. The ABC speaks ABC.

Via Andrew Bolt and Tim Blair, we witness an interesting interpretation. A bloke writes a letter to the ABC calling them out for printing garbage as fact.

Here’s what the ABC reported.

“Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott had to flee a Canberra restaurant after it was surrounded by angry demonstrators, incensed by earlier comments Mr Abbott had made regarding the Aboriginal Tent Embassy.”

Except, of course, Abbott made no such comments. A staffer in PM Gillard’s office made it up which in turn sparked a mini race riot that not only endangered Abbott but Gillard as well.

The ABC’s pathetic response?

What is true is that Mr Abbott’s comments sparked the demonstration perhaps because they had been misrepresented or exaggerated. In that sense it is accurate to say that they “were enraged by remarks Mr Abbott had made”.

“In that sense”?

NONSENSE.

Misinterpreted? Bullshit. A Gillard staffer, Tony Hodges, flat out LIED.

Abbott said we’ve come a long way since the ugly race politics of 40 years ago and that perhaps it’s time to move on from ugly race politics.

Gillard’s staffer twisted this into claiming Abbott had said the Aboriginal Tent Embassy should be torn down.

And the ABC has not only further perpetuated that lie, but they’ve also had the gall to try and justify it.

You know, it’s one thing for a commercial outlet to print falsehoods. And it’s a good idea if they don’t as often as possible as this can hurt their bottom line.

But the bottom line doesn’t matter when it comes to the taxpayer-funded ABC.

The public who funds this “service” deserves far better. We have been ripped off.

UPDATE

Tim Blair reader, Simon of Hobart, makes an important point.

So true. When are the people who rioted going to be held accountable for their shameful actions? Rhetorical question. The police decided barely before the riot was over that, oddly, they would not press charges.

It is clear it doesn’t matter what crime is committed, but instead who commits the crime.

The blame game

The state Victorian Opposition (ALP) blames the Victorian Government (Lib) for Alcoa potentially closing its Victorian smelter. It says the government should do something.

Federal Opposition leader Tony Abbott blames Gillard’s carbon tax.

The truth?

Alcoa today announced it would examine the viability of its Point Henry aluminium smelter at Geelong because a high dollar, higher metal prices and input costs had made it unprofitable.

Alcoa blames neither the state (Lib) nor federal (ALP) government per se.

UPDATE

Although…

Mr Cransberg [the Alcoa big cheese] said while the carbon tax was not the reason for the review, it would hurt business.

“Obviously post July 1 that will make life more difficult for us,” he told journalists.

Thus Julia’s “hyperbowl” (she said Abbott’s comments were “disgusting”) at Abbott is just that; “hyperbowl”.

With the way Gillard is spending, how CAN Abbott possibly commit to a return to surplus timetable?

OK. I get it. Opposition leader Tony Abbott, before the last election, did commit to return Gillard’s budget deficit to surplus within one term.

But that commitment simply isn’t possible now for two main reasons.

1. The budget deficit is much higher that the initial $6 billion Abbott committed to returning to surplus.

2. With gross national debt (and yes, this does affect the budget) skyrocketing at around $2 billion per week, budget debt rising fast too, and uncertainty as to exactly what week this government will fall, it would be foolish and impossible to try and dream up some sort of timetable now. Timetables require a costing/spending plan. You need to start out with a total, but nobody knows exactly what that total will be when this mess finally comes to an end.

Mr Abbott said the Coalition wasn’t in a position to make a similar pledge as it did at the last election, when it promised to post a $6 billion surplus by 2012-13.

“Now since then a lot’s happened and as you know for the current financial year the government originally predicted a $12 billion deficit, then it went out to $24 billion and now it’s gone out to $37 billion.

Imagine what that budget debt would be if sneaky Wayne Swan hadn’t taken the NBN out of budget calculations.

Going, going…

Oh, just get it over with already.

”She needs a flawless three months,” the factional boss said of Ms Gillard. ”Her danger zone is between Queensland and the budget.”

Mr Crean, Bill Shorten and Stephen Smith have all been cited as contenders to keep out Mr Rudd should Ms Gillard’s leadership become terminal.

A Crean backer has begun canvassing support. But sources on both sides concede any contest will be between Ms Gillard and Mr Rudd in the end.

One senior source said the many MPs who have drifted away from Ms Gillard over the summer are ”parked in the unknown”.

How can the PM possibly survive? At least one member – and likely more – of her office has been busted for inciting a dangerous race riot based on a false assertion that Opposition leader Tony Abbott said he wanted the Aboriginal Tent Embassy in Canberra torn down.

The Opposition leader and indeed the PM herself were put in considerable physical danger not seen for years.

He didn’t he wanted the tent embassy torn down, however. He said we should move on from the ugly race politics of 40 years ago.

And then, of course, we have the Craig Thomson affair – a bloke who is effectively propping up this minority government, and yet a Fair Work Australia investigation into allegations he misused $100,000 in Health Services Union credit card funds, including using said funds to pay for prostitutes, has dragged on for almost three years, longer than some Royal Commissions.

Speaking on the ABC’s 7.30 last night Ms Jackson [she's the current HSU boss - bing] revealed she had “suspicions” Labor had interfered in the Fair Work Australia investigation into the HSU.

We have no proof, of course – yet – but seriously? Three years???

And to think, there’s no dispute that the funds were withdrawn. There’s no dispute that funds were used to pay for prostitutes. And the signature on the receipts looks strikingly like Thompson’s.

And yet Thomson says he’s innocent BUT hasn’t come out and said he was set up.

That’s the level of respect this government has for the people of Australia.

No, wait. Actually it’s lower.

Here’s Communications Minister Stephen Conroy (from the link above), the bloke I blogged about yesterday, who has no problems with rich Leftists owning publications, but when it comes to a non-Leftist owning even a sizeable fraction of a publication, he starts wailing for tougher laws.

Anyway, here’s what he said today about the whole Craig Thomson affair.

“Ms Jackson is welcome to her conspiracy theories.”

Dude. Seriously?

Yeah, well. Let’s just wait until Friday, Steve. I’m sure your mob will be very busy little bees today.

UPDATE

Leadership challenge inevitable:

It’s moot. Sure, Gillard is the worst PM in the history of Australia, but she is not a dictator. She’s the leader of a party. The problem isn’t just her.

UPDATE II

The Health Services Union shelled out more than $600,000 in political donations to the ALP during 2010/11 despite amassing debts of almost $19 million.

Stunning.

Via whaleoil

UPDATE III

Spin. Spin. Spin.

A day after HSU boss Kathy Jackson raised suspicious about a simple inquiry somehow taking longer than some Royal Commissions, now Thomson himself today has come out complaining the inquiry into him is taking too long.

Nice timing. Told you they’d be busy little bees today.

Back on deck

Because I’m back at work and it’s so much easier blogging when in “work mode”. Thanks for all those links guys (for the uninitiated, check recent comments [headlines] as of 1/Feb/12 in the Obama thread below).

Have been keeping abreast of recent events (read: Australia Day race riots) ever since I saw the ugly scenes splashed across CNN. As most reading this will know, the excellent Andrew Bolt has been all over this like cankles on a ranga.

For our American readers (FOAR), this is turning out to be something akin to Australia’s Watergate except the action has been sped up. Member(s) of the PM’s Office have been busted inciting a race riot (that threatened the very safety of the Opposition Leader and ironically the PM, too) based on false assertions of what the Opposition Leader said about a bunch of squalid tents parked on the lawn of Old Parliament House AKA the Aboriginal Tent Embassy – a largely obsolete, fringe group relic lingering on from the far-poorer race relations of 40 years ago. The word got out that the Opposition Leader said it should be torn down. What he actually said was we should move on from the race relations of 40 years ago… slight difference.

(FOAR) This could well go all the way to the top i.e. the PM herself. The PM’s Office’s latest attempt to blame the Opposition Leader for every government failing – of which there are many – and portray the Opposition Leader as a racist (he isn’t, heck, he does volunteer work in remote Aboriginal communities [no cameras, either]) has failed spectactularly.

It blew up in their face better than a hard-boiled rotten egg re-heated in the microwave.

Anyway, I’m off to catch up on yesterday’s radio segment featuring Andrew Bolt and Steve Price chatting with the bloke who broke this whole story in the first place, the tenacious Ray Hadley.

If it wasn’t for him (and his first source) , the PM could well have gotten away with all this…

See you soon (as in later today with any luck), folks, and thanks again for all those links.

(Apologies to JM who has emailed many, too. I did read the headlines…)

And a good thing, too

The Malaysia “solution” was never a solution. A muddied message at best, the idea to send 800 asylum seekers to Malaysia in return for 4000 of their refugees reeked of nothingness.

It made no sense.

And Tony Abbott is right to swat it like the mosquito it is.

Ten days to save the Eurozone?

Or make that eight days since Wolfgang Munchau’s column over at the financial times (had the page up before but now it’s behind a paywall so here’s a Hot Air link) was written on the 27th.

Who knows but really when it will actually happen? Or if. You read comments on these financial articles and everybody seems to have an opinion on when or if the Euro will collapse and/or how to fix it.

And as for that 10 days stuff, we were told 10 days back in October, and even as far back as June.

All I know is that if it does collapse, the Gillard government will blame Tony Abbott and use it as an excuse for yet another billion-dollar budget blowout.

UPDATE (via JM)

What? Socialists rioting because they’ve run out of other people’s money?

As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.

Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.

The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.

A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.

And…

Europe’s monetary union may unravel sooner than the region’s leaders can mobilize to ensure the sovereign-debt crisis doesn’t overwhelm the currency, a UBS AG (UBSN) foreign exchange strategist wrote.

“Financial markets continue to move faster than politicians,” Mansoor Mohi-uddin, head of foreign exchange strategy for UBS, wrote in today’s note. Markets are starting to “price in the endgame” for the currency, he said.

Why Tony, why?

There are principles, and there’s shooting yourself in the foot.

It turns out we were that close to getting independent MP and key Labor ally, Rob Oakeshott, as Speaker of the House.

The deal collapsed after Mr Oakeshott insisted he wanted Mr Abbott to nominate him for the job. Mr Abbott declined, saying the Coalition believed Labor should provide the Speaker and it would support Mr Oakeshott only to block Mr Slipper and only if he were nominated by someone else. Mr Oakeshott was unavailable for comment last night.

So instead of a majority of one being extended to a majority of three, we could have had a majority of one being reduced to a “majority” of zero.

Surely that could have triggered an early election.

It’s Friday and almost knock off time. Am I missing something here?

 

The carbon tax that saved the planet (and the man who wanted it destroyed)

We were lucky.

As you are most surely well aware, Opposition leader Tony Abbott had been planning to redirect a giant asteroid, the size of an aircraft carrier, into planet Earth, and most likely Australia’s eastern seaboard.

The damage done, had he gotten away with his wicked plan, would have been immeasurable.

Fortunately, with the help of the righteous Greens, our gallant PM Julia Gillard was able to avert the disaster thanks to the quick passage of the carbon tax bills through the Senate yesterday.

Barely hours old, the carbon tax was so effective that it managed to push the giant asteroid a full 1.38 million kilometres away – barely a hair’s breadth in galactic terms, but enough nonetheless.

Already we are witness to the immeasurable difference the carbon tax has had, and will have on the earth.

Foiled: carbon tax saves humanity from deadly Abbott death rock

Pop politics

Opposition leader Tony Abbott’s refusal to, literally, wield a chainsaw in his budgie smugglers is costing him dearly.

LABOR’S portrayal of Tony Abbott as too negative appears to have hit home, with the latest Newspoll finding voter dissatisfaction with the Opposition Leader’s performance at a record high of 57 per cent.

And Julia Gillard appears to be staging a political comeback, winning a three-percentage-point increase in Labor’s primary vote in the past fortnight, and stretching her gains to six percentage points in the past seven weeks.

This “negative” bloke is a bloke who not only got married, but had three kids, surf life saves, and keeps fit… super fit.

If there’s anything wrong with him, he’s too soft.

I’m sorry, I know I’m partisan, but exactly where does does the “negative” schtick originate from?

Agreed, Jill Singer: the nonsense has to stop

Jill Singer supports a carbon (dioxide!) tax. Unfortunately, she shows a complete ignorance of the real science behind the politics.

THE “debate” over a carbon tax in Australia has become high farce.

Indeed it has. The Left seem to think that taxing the bejesus out of a trace gas will somehow save a planet that doesn’t need saving. Jill and her ilk fail to realise CO2 is only a minor greenhouse gas at that. It makes up only 0.04% of our atmosphere. Most of it is natural. The sceptical side has man-made CO2 at 3% or about 0.001% of our atmosphere. The alarmist side puts man-made CO2 at ten times higher. But so what? That means man-made CO2 would occupy 0.01% of our atmosphere.

There’s no way Man’s small contribution to  a minor greenhouse trace gas – yet an essential gas, most of it naturally occurring – can be the main driver of climate. That hypothesis is, to use Jill’s words, a “high farce”.

Just let us have a damn say!

Although promising not to, the Gillard government wants to enact the biggest change on the Australian economy, via a carbon (dioxide!) tax, since the GST.

Today, Tony Abbott suggested a plebiscite meaning every Australian voter would get a real chance to vote Yes or No.

This is the only fair way to go about it.

But the government is saying No, the two gargantuan egos that are the “Independents” Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, aren’t saying Yes or No so far, and Greens Leader Bob Brown, formerly a fan of plebiscites, is also saying No.

According to a NineMSM poll, however, about seven out of every eight Australians is saying Yes.

Granted that’s not a scientific poll, but it will be very interesting when a proper one comes out.

What are Gillard and Co. so worried about? A plebiscite isn’t a compulsory vote, nor is it binding as is the case in a general election and/or referendum.

Their stance is the antithesis to democracy.

[slightly edited]