Solar forecast


David Archibald has written a guest post over at WAWT.

We now have the tools to predict climate out to the mid-21st Century with a fair degree of confidence, and a repeat of the Maunder Minimum is unlikely. A de Vries Cycle repeat of the Dalton Minimum is what is in prospect up to the early 2030s and then a return to normal conditions of solar activity, and normal climate.

So if you hear the warmists say in 15 years time, “See? It’s cooler. Our carbon tax/ETS/renewables work!”, tell ’em they’re dreaming.

That said, one keeps hearing there are a myriad of variables when it comes to forecasting climate of which we are really only beginning to recognise and understand.

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  1. This part is crucial:

    The second tool to use is the logarithmic heating effect of carbon dioxide. The pre-industrial level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was approximately 290 ppm. It is currently 390 ppm. The first 20 ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere provides half the heating effect to date. By the time we get to the current concentration, each additional 100 ppm provides a further 0.1°C of heating. We are currently adding 2 ppm to the atmosphere each year so carbon dioxide will provide further heating of 0.1°C every 50 years. That said, the temperature fall over the next 22 years should result in a higher rate of carbon dioxide uptake by the oceans.”

    Right! So the warming effect of carbon dioxide input into the atmosphere is not linear, but logarithmic. In other words, there are diminishing returns, so to speak, of CO2 levels’ contribution to the greenhouse effect. The more CO2, the less the impact. I’ve read something like this before, but to see it laid out in the chart really drives the point home.

    • The logarithmic effect, which some anon typing in green mentioned in that forum I posted a pic of in another post 😉 There’s an older graph which shows essentially the same you’ve probably seen.

      http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/511/logwarmingillustratedeo8.png/sr=1

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