Ouch! The ALP’s worst poll ever. ALP 39.5% L-NP 60.5%


Keep pounding that yellow brick road to plug your useless, ineffective wrecking ball of a carbon tax, Julia.

Here’s the first poll since PM Gillard formally announced her trace gas tax.

Yowsa!

In the first Australia-wide voting intention poll conducted since Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced the details of the Carbon Tax the latest telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights, July 13/14, 2011 shows the L-NP 60.5% with a record winning lead over the ALP 39.5% – the worst Two-Party preferred voting result for Labor since the first Roy Morgan Gallup Poll conducted in May 1942.

The L-NP primary vote is 52.5%, nearly double the ALP 27.5%. Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 10.5% and Others/ Independents 9.5%.

If a Federal election were held today the L-NP would win in a landslide according to today’s Morgan Poll.

H/T

  • definitely time for that Friday Night Party Music now!
  • (to the tune of Bohemian Rhapsody) Julieeeeeee!!!! Youuuu goooot to go….
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    • Merilyn
    • July 15th, 2011

    Good! Now perhaps the Labor Party will realise that Julia is killing them bit by bit, but again maybe not, as that woman said to the lady who was holding the sign at the supermarket, “It’s what we want, it’s what the Labor Party want”.

    • Bit by bit? Chunk by chunk.

    • Carpe Jugulum
    • July 15th, 2011

    Scene 1 – A foggy night outside Alp HQ, the black plague of CO2 tax descends

    Scene 2 – A man with a horse & cart in a smoky, cobblestone street

    Scene 2a – *bell rings*……….bring out your dead…..bring out your political dead

    Scene 3 – A big nose redhead is carried kicking and sceaming to the cart………………………

    back after this message from our sponsor…………………………….fade to black

      • Sean of Deer Park
      • July 15th, 2011

      😆

    • Sean of Deer Park
    • July 15th, 2011

    THANK YOU, BB! (and Daniel)

    There is no info on this at News.com, Bolts, or Blairs. Nice to know we can count on James Board for up to the minute “Breaking News” from BB, in South Korea! Well done. 5 gold stars.

    Stuff the DVD’s, time to crack a bottle and pop into the Friday Night Party thread.
    🙂

  1. A question from a colonial. Who can call for a vote of confidence, and is there enough votes to ensure its failure? Barring that, when is the next election determined? Is it on a time basis, or when the PM decides it is time?

    I have not followed Parlimentary governments close enough to know the answers. I have followed them enough to know that a government can be brought down and early elections mandated, but unsure of how that occurs.

      • Carpe Jugulum
      • July 16th, 2011

      The opposition can move a vote of no cofidence but without the numbers in the house of representatives it is a moot point.

        • J.M. Heinrichs
        • July 16th, 2011

        True, but with a majority of one, the government must have those ‘numbers’ in the House at all times. We had a PM whose whip once forgot to check his numbers, thus becoming an ex-
        PM.

        Cheers

        • So basically at least one member (if a majority of 1) of the current ruling coalition has to decide to switch their vote?

          What if a member of Parliment resigns or dies in office? How are they replaced? is that a special election or is it done by Appointment by the party who controlled the seat?

            • Sean of Deer Park
            • July 16th, 2011

            Triggers a bi-election for his/her seat. No appointments. It would also mean a hung parliament in today’s government and result in a full election.

            Technically, the current government can hold office until March 2013. Personally, I doubt it will hold together that long.

            The ALP have a caucus rule to stick together, regardless of what each backbencher MP wants to do. The Libs/Nationals can vote as they see fit, which makes people like Malcolm Turnbull a loose cannon, not to be trusted. Generally, they tend to stick together so as to seem unified.

            If a Labor MP were to cross the floor on any vote against caucus wishes, the sitting member can be sacked by Caucus from the party. The MP would then be seen as Independent. It would be suicide for the ALP to take action against an MP like this right now, since we practically have a hung parliament, any defection would result in a full on election, as the ALP would no longer have a majority. It would be a very messy and unworkable outcome for Labor.

            With Gillard trashing the Labor brand, it is likely many MP’s will band together and threaten her very soon. Resulting in a party room split. It is most likely this will be the case prior to 2013. It is odds on Labor is going to eat itself alive and save us.

            I’m 99% sure the above is correct. (Tell me if I’m wrong, guys)

            • November 30, 2013

    • Merilyn
    • July 16th, 2011

    Congratulations bing, for this poll result, from what I can see you were the first cab off the block, notice Andrew Bot now has it up. Not many others though, well done lad.

  2. I used to say Jooolya was as popular as a ham sandwich at a bar mitzvah. The way it stands now, I reckon that sandwich would get a hug and a kiss from the rabbi.

    • Mick Gold Coast QLD
    • July 17th, 2011

    On Phil Jourdan’s questions I believe Sean of Deer Park’s answers are accurate.

    I recall the ALP doing “eat itself alive” on a world’s best practice scale through most of my teenage, before it miraculously welded together for the Whitlam experiment. I think this is the most likely ultimate result for the Pardy after this Parliament – a split of sorts.

    How the ALP deals with the Gillard problem exercises my mind mightily. She’s Left but cannot be simply concrete booted by the Right because it is no longer the juggernaut it used be under the Breretons and Keatings – with Richo making many, many accurate decisions for them on strategy and means. He was good because he had excellent links into the numerous internal networks.

    I watched Richo last election night because he invariably gets it right and early. The computers weren’t as fabulous as the backroom whizkid designers promised and did not deliver timely data (happens often, they focus on the blond hair tips bit – the sexy fade in-fade out thingys – but forget the proper insertion of dBase or Excel as being sort of important).

    Richo and his offsider, a bloke who appeared more as a penciller for the local SP bookie, went off to the side with an A4 writing pad and a pencil (a rarely used writing device) had a quick yarn about what the strategically posted trusted cockatoos out their watching were reporting in, and put together their accurate summary in about 5 minutes.

    If only he’d cease being a reluctant apologist on his Sky TV show and speak his mind we’d get some very accurate insight!

    The Left isn’t necessarily as powerful a force either. Crean and Marn Ferrsn are their top parliamentary fellas still (I think) and not so respected by the younger know alls in the Pardy.

    So the major factions have factions within and are unlikely to solve the problem.

    I’m no longer up to date on who are today’s faceless men in NSW and Victoria. Bill Ludwig is the main force up here but the big states run the show. There’s something awry happening there because they were historically brutally decisive and didn’t allow poor decisions to run on for long. Their unions have power as Pardy financier but it seems there are multiple mutually exclusive union campaigns being run simultaneously – from Howes for King, the energy unions fighting irrelevance and others. One campaign funds the Greens and their determination to kill off blue collar jobs yet old Labor hates the sneaky little mongrels – work that out!

    Then there is the dominant power of Bruce Pollster, who no-one voted in, creating and running and tweaking all policy, using The Worm. There is no way strong personalities of substance such as Dawkins, Biggles, Barry Jones, Walsh, Button, Kerin or Rex Connor would have had him disturb their work. Further, these blokes wouldn’t have permitted the Greens to occupy the same building, let alone determine their Cabinet meeting agendas.

    Killing off the Bogan Broadarks disaster means a new leader, but there is no Keating to replace Hawke (built on a Centre Unity-Right solid foundation) or a charismatic Hawke to replace an unmarketable serious face in Hayden, of then unacceptable QLD breeding. NSW won’t cop Comrade Son in Law just as the East Coast didn’t accept WA’s Beasley.

    It’s all a directionless mess right now, with feeble hearted back-benchers running about like fickle schoolgirls convincing each other that it can’t be that bad, being too uneducated to recognise self-immolation if it smacked ’em in the moosh. Horribly mixed metaphors there Mick.

    I’m certain that last group is where the likes of Andrew Bolt get their “She’s gone now, by Wednesday week for sure” call, repeated 4 or 17 times already since last July.

    My mind keeps returning to the dynamic impact of unexpected seemingly insignificant events. They pinged Al Capone not on bootlegging and criming and killing but on not paying enough tax. This lot is just as likely to be brought undone by one of their mediocre meatheads believing he’s Don Juan and trying to bonk the office girl in full view of the corridor cameras.

    I’d like it to be Combet.

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