Global warming forecast models essentially worthless
Walter Russell Mead explains:
To predict the amount of CO2 that human industry will be emitting in 2050, you need a figure for the world’s GDP by then. That means you have to have long range forecasts for China, India, South Africa, Russia, Brazil, Germany, the US, Canada and many other countries. Nobody has any forecasts of the 50 year GDP growth of any of these countries that is worth anything at all, because economic forecasting doesn’t work that way. (It hardly works at all, but certainly not on this long term basis.)
And then you have to forecast how much CO2 will be emitted per unit of GDP. That involves forecasting the rate and nature of technological change, the state and composition of world energy reserves in thirty years, and many other things which simply cannot be known by anybody living today.
And yet Australia’s lone ranga, PM Julia Gillard, pushes on with her useless, expensive carbon dioxide tax. With any luck, she’ll be gone by Friday.
Almost a fifth of MP snub Julia’s BBQ. Ouch.