Global warming forecast models essentially worthless


Walter Russell Mead explains:

To predict the amount of CO2 that human industry will be emitting in 2050, you need a figure for the world’s GDP by then. That means you have to have long range forecasts for China, India, South Africa, Russia, Brazil, Germany, the US, Canada and many other countries. Nobody has any forecasts of the 50 year GDP growth of any of these countries that is worth anything at all, because economic forecasting doesn’t work that way. (It hardly works at all, but certainly not on this long term basis.)

And then you have to forecast how much CO2 will be emitted per unit of GDP. That involves forecasting the rate and nature of technological change, the state and composition of world energy reserves in thirty years, and many other things which simply cannot be known by anybody living today.

An astrologer would throw up his hands in dismay at this sloppy reasoning and hazy science.

And yet Australia’s lone ranga, PM Julia Gillard, pushes on with her useless, expensive carbon dioxide tax. With any luck, she’ll be gone by Friday.

UPDATE

Almost a fifth of MP snub Julia’s BBQ. Ouch.

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  1. Hi,
    I fear the only thing that is going to stop this stupid money eating carbon tax, will be a total change of Government, a full election. I fear that because I think this Government will stay in power till the 2013
    election. 😦

    If Labor changes leaders, no matter who they decide on, there will still be a carbon tax.

    • mabba
    • February 6th, 2012

    Watch Parlt’s return this week. Everything just about depends on Pete Slipper’s handling the role of Speaker. How will he manage? Sadly, I think the house will descend to an unfair, chaotic rabble.

      • Carpe Jugulum
      • February 6th, 2012

      The new speeker may have to reconsider his choice of beveredge defor the afternoon sitting comences.

      😉

        • Carpe Jugulum
        • February 6th, 2012

        “before”……………………….bugger

        • And now Slippery Pete is thinking of wearing a wig. Yep, that’ll trick us into believing he’s a class act.

  1. February 6th, 2012

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