Seems a bit early to tell for this layman and more of a coincidence, but anyway…
It’s happened 13 times since 1936. Call it the IBD January Incumbent Barometer.
An incumbent president faces a challenger … and 13 out of 13 times the stock market picks the winner in January.
Here’s how it works: When the stock market scores a big gain in January — about 6% or more — the challenger beats the incumbent president every time, or as we shall see, almost every time. When the stock market goes up or down modestly in January — 4% or less in either direction — the incumbent wins almost every time.
This January the Nasdaq rose 8%, signaling a loss for President Obama, according to the IBD JIB.
Let’s pause, my friends, to recognize that what I write on this blog, and what you reply in the comments, will never change anything about the Republican presidential primary campaign. And we would be guilty of exaggerating our own influence if we thought otherwise.
Via Instapundit who notes:
In a nutshell, that’s why I haven’t seemed very interested — as various emailers have noted from time to time — in the Republican primary process. Nobody really excites me, but I’ll be quite happy to vote for the nominee, whether it’s Romney, Paul, Santorum, Gingrich, or Zeeba, over Barack Obama. Nor do I think the race is likely to turn on what gets written here.
I feel similar. None of the GOP nominees have really stood out.
The latest poll tells a different story than the IBD JIB.